Multiscale Local Forcing of the Arabian Desert Daytime Boundary Layer, and Implications for the Dispersion of Surface-Released Contaminants

Abstract

Abstract Four 6-day simulations of the atmospheric conditions over the Arabian Desert during the time of the 1991 detonation and release of toxic material at the Khamisiyah, Iraq, weapons depot were performed using a mesoscale model run in a data-assimilation mode. These atmospheric simulations are being employed in a forensic analysis of the potential contribution of the toxic material to so-called Gulf War illness. The transport and concentration of such surface-released contaminants are related strongly to the planetary boundary layer (PBL) depth and the horizontal wind speed in the PBL. The product of the PBL depth and the mean wind speed within it is referred to as the ventilation and is used as a metric of the horizontal transport within the PBL. Thus, a corollary study to the larger forensic analysis involves employing the model solutions and available data in an analysis of the multiscale spatial variability of the daytime desert PBL depth and ventilation as they are affected by surface forcing from terrain elevation variations, coastal circulations, and contrasts in surface physical properties. The coarsest computational grid spanned the entire northern Arabian Desert and surrounding areas of the Middle East, and represented the large-scale PBL modulation by the orography. The PBL depths were greatest over the high elevations of the western Arabian Peninsula and over the Zagros Mountains in western Iran and were shallowest over water bodies and the lower elevations in the Tigris–Euphrates Valley. Higher-resolution grids in the nest (the smallest grid increment was 3.3 km) showed that the PBL depth minimum in the Tigris–Euphrates Valley was likely a consequence of compensating subsidence associated with the thermally forced daytime upward motion over the Zagros Mountains to the east in Iran, with possible contributions from an elevated mixed layer. Further local modulation of the daytime desert PBL occurred as a result of the inland penetration of the coastal sea-breeze circulation on the west side of the Persian Gulf, where PBL depths were suppressed as far as 100 km inland. On the finest scales, significant PBL-depth variability resulted from surface thermal differences associated with contrasts between barren desert and partially vegetated desert. The average 1500 LT ventilation over the Arabian Desert for the 6-day period varied spatially from less than 4000 m2 s−1 to over 24 000 m2 s−1. This range represents over a factor-of-6 variation in the ability of the atmosphere to transport contaminants away from a source region.