Abstract
The objective of this work is to study the feasibility of developing a stochastic specification model of the radiation environment near Earth, taking into account both the short-term dynamics (a few weeks) and the long-term dynamics (solar cycle). Extending from a previous work, we have developed a generic model for the average particle fluxes at the different timescales, and with confidence levels accounting for the natural variability of the radiation belts. We show that this new model can account for the dynamics of the fluxes of both protons and electrons, and for various orbit, such as LEO (Low Earth Orbit) and GEO (Geostationary Earth Orbit).
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