Multiscale Decomposition Prediction of Propagation Loss for EM Waves in Marine Evaporation Duct Using Deep Learning

Abstract

A tropospheric duct (TD) is an anomalous atmospheric refraction structure in marine environments that seriously interferes with the propagation path and range of electromagnetic (EM) waves, resulting in serious influence on the normal operation of radar. Since the propagation loss (PL) can reflect the propagation characteristics of EM waves inside the duct layer, it is important to obtain an accurate cognition of the PL of EM waves in marine TDs. However, the PL is strongly non−linear with propagation range due to the trapped propagation effect inside duct layer, which makes accurate prediction of PL more difficult. To resolve this problem, a novel multiscale decomposition prediction method (VMD−PSO−LSTM) based on the long short−term memory (LSTM) network, variational mode decomposition (VMD) method and particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is proposed in this study. Firstly, VMD is used to decompose PL into several smooth subsequences with different frequency scales. Then, a LSTM−based model for each subsequence is built to predict the corresponding subsequence. In addition, PSO is used to optimize the hyperparameters of each LSTM prediction model. Finally, the predicted subsequences are reconstructed to obtain the final PL prediction results. The performance of the VMD−PSO−LSTM method is verified by combining the measured PL. The minimum RMSE and MAE indicators for the VMD−PSO−PSTM method are 0.368 and 0.276, respectively. The percentage improvement of prediction performance compared to other prediction methods can reach at most 72.46 and 77.61% in RMSE and MAE, respectively, showing that the VMD−PSO−LSTM method has the advantages of high accuracy and outperforms other comparison methods.