Abstract
BackgroundThe Delphi method is used in a wide variety of settings as a method of building consensus on important issues. Traditionally, the Delphi method uses multiple rounds of a survey to allow for feedback of other participants’ survey responses in between rounds. By informing participants about how others answer a question or prioritise specific topics, it allows for diverse opinions to inform the consensus process. For this reason, the Delphi method is popular as a consensus building approach in developing core outcome sets (COS), i.e. the minimum agreed set of standardised outcomes that should be measured and reported in studies on a specific health condition. In a COS setting, participants prioritise the importance of outcomes for inclusion in a COS. This usually involves participating in multiple rounds of a survey that can span several weeks or months. Challenges with participant retention have been highlighted in previous COS. We will compare a three-round with a Real-Time Delphi approach on prioritised outcomes. This trial is embedded within the COHESION study which is developing a COS for interventions treating neonatal encephalopathy.MethodsOne hundred and eighty stakeholders (parents/caregivers of infants diagnosed and treated with neonatal encephalopathy, healthcare providers and researchers) will be randomised using stratified randomisation to take part in either the Multi-Round or Real-Time Delphi. Stakeholders will rate the importance of the same set of outcomes in both arms. We will compare the prioritised outcomes at the end of both surveys as well as other parameters such as feedback, initial condition and iteration effects.DiscussionThis trial will provide evidence to inform decisions on the use of Multi-Round compared to Real-Time Delphi survey methods.Trial registrationNCT04471103. Registered on 14 July 2020.
Highlights
The Delphi method is used widely to achieve consensus among experts on a particular topic [1]
The Delphi method has transitioned from a pen-to-paper approach to the e-Delphi method, where surveys are carried out online using the Internet with the potential for a global reach and potentially achieving consensus faster than pen-to-paper versions
Despite claims that a Real-Time Delphi will improve efficiency of the survey process by removing the strict rounds and the time it takes for participants to complete the survey [6, 8], there is no strong evidence on how it compares to the Multi-Round Delphi
Summary
Study setting Both the Multi-Round and Real-Time Delphi surveys will take place online using the Calibrum (Surveylet) system, which is General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) compliant. The randomisation sequence is generated using a computerised random number generator This is based on the stakeholder’s unique identifier value which is generated by stakeholders selecting which stakeholder category they belong to in an initial demographic survey (i.e. parent, caregiver, neonatal nurse practitioners, midwives, obstetricians, neonatologists/paediatricians, neonatal/paediatric neurologists, general practitioners who provide long-term care for children with neonatal encephalopathy, policymakers and other healthcare providers such as therapists (speech, physical, etc.), etc.), and researchers with expertise in neonatal encephalopathy treatment. We will use the following model to estimate this effect: corkl 1⁄4 bo þ b1Ãdevkl þ b2Ãγk þ b3ÃðγkÃdevklÞ k: participants of both Multi-Round and RT Delphi surveys ls: the projection dependent on s which indicates whether the projections (outcome rating) are from the Real-Time (s = 1) or Multi-Round (s = 2) Delphi study. Devkl: how strongly a stakeholder deviated from the final expected-probability value. γk∈{0, 1}: an indicator variable which takes on the value 1 if the expert k belongs to the Real-Time and 0 if an expert belongs to the Multi-Round Delphi study. b1: slope coefficient b2: indictor variable b3: interaction term
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