Multiregional Periodic Matrix for Modeling the Population Dynamics of Sardine (Sardina pilchardus) Along the Moroccan Atlantic Coast: Management Elements for Fisheries

Abstract

In this paper, we present a deterministic time discrete mathematical model based on multiregional periodic matrices to describe the dynamics of Sardina pilchardus in the Central Atlantic area of the Moroccan coast. This model deals with two stages (immature and mature) and three spatial zones where sardines are supposed to migrate from one zone to another. The population dynamics is described by an autonomous recurrence equation N(t + 1) = A.N(t), where A is a positive matrix whose entries are estimated using data collected during biannual acoustic surveys carried out from 2001 to 2003 onboard the Norwegian research vessel "Dr Fridtjof Nansen". The dominant eigenvalue lambda of A that gives the long-term growth rate of fish population is smaller than one. This agrees with the stock decrease observed in the data collected. We show that lambda is highly sensitive to the recruitment rate and much less sensitive to the reproduction rate. These results can clearly be used to define an efficient scenario in order to fight for instance against a stock decrease.