Abstract
The nature of interdependence between states encourages them to establish cooperation in different fields, leading to multiple relations. The policy alignments of states on trade and political relations can be regarded as the most critical agenda in a globalized world. Accounting for the linkages between economic and political issues, this study focuses on the two relational ties, (i) free trade agreements (FTAs) as economic cooperation and (ii) political alliances (PAs) as political cooperation. In addition, it evaluates the coevolution of FTAs and PAs by employing a multiplex stochastic actor-oriented model with longitudinal data of 160 countries during the period from 1990 to 2012. The results show that the presence of a PA inspires the formation of an FTA, but present no clear evidence that the presence of an FTA promotes the formation of a PA. Our analysis also shows that a state prefers to form both FTAs and PAs with trade hub partners that have more FTAs but prefers to form only PAs with political hub partners that have more PAs. This study argues that such asymmetric effects between FTAs and PAs emphasizes the preferences of states for liberalizing trade and connecting with partners that have many FTAs.
Highlights
Cooperative phenomena among states occur when they share common goals and similar interests or preferences [1,2]
Under ongoing global integration, enhancing cooperation, and establishing new relational ties with potential partners seem to lie at the heart of almost all states, and more states tend to engage in international cooperation to balance the costs and benefits of cooperation
political alliances (PAs) could alleviate the possibilities of negative externalities from free trade agreements (FTAs), and economic gains from FTAs could contribute to political strength
Summary
Cooperative phenomena among states occur when they share common goals and similar interests or preferences [1,2]. PAs could alleviate the possibilities of negative externalities from FTAs, and economic gains from FTAs could contribute to political strength These arguments suggest the existence of cross-network dyadic influences, i.e., FTAs (PAs) promote the formation of PAs (FTAs). Due to the interrelation of economic and political issues, the existing network structures of FTAs could affect a state’s decision concerning an FTA and a PA, and the existing network structures of PAs could affect a state’s decision concerning both agreements Given these arguments, we expect cross-network preferential attachments, i.e., a state tends to form FTAs with states that have more PAs and to form PAs with states that have more FTAs. In the international system, the existing ties and characteristics of states can influence the decisions of states to form new ties. This study employs the multiplex form of SAOMs to evaluate the multiplex coevolution or dynamics of the two networks of FTAs and PAs, which would be a new contribution of this study to the literature
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