Abstract
In recent years, various online tools and databases have been developed to assess the potential energy output of photovoltaic (PV) installations in different geographical areas. However, these tools generally provide a spatial resolution of a few kilometers and, for a systematic analysis at large scale, they require continuous querying of their online databases. In this article, we present a methodology for fast estimation of the yearly sum of global solar irradiation and PV energy yield over large-scale territories. The proposed method relies on a multiple-regression model including only well-known geodata, such as latitude, altitude above sea level and average ambient temperature. Therefore, it is particularly suitable for a fast, preliminary, offline estimation of solar PV output and to analyze possible investments in new installations. Application of the method to a random set of 80 geographical locations throughout Europe and Africa yields a mean absolute percent error of 4.4% for the estimate of solar irradiation (13.6% maximum percent error) and of 4.3% for the prediction of photovoltaic electricity production (14.8% maximum percent error for free-standing installations; 15.4% for building-integrated ones), which are consistent with the general accuracy provided by the reference tools for this application. Besides photovoltaic potentials, the proposed method could also find application in a wider range of installation assessments, such as in solar thermal energy or desalination plants.
Highlights
The world population is estimated to reach nearly 8.1 billion in 2040, with an average global economic growth of 3.4% per year
We propose a simple yet effective model to estimate the yearly solar irradiation per unit area, only taking into account the latitude, altitude, and average temperature of a certain location as input parameters
The yearly sum of global solar irradiation is obtained according to Equation (1), which requires as inputs the latitude φ, the altitude h and the mean temperature T24 for a given geographical location
Summary
The world population is estimated to reach nearly 8.1 billion in 2040, with an average global economic growth of 3.4% per year. Energy scenarios forecast a remarkable increase in global energy demand of about 30% by 2040 [1]. In line with the ratified agreements for worldwide sustainable development [2], a significant step up of renewables over conventional fossil fuels is expected in the global energy mix. The average net capacity addition per year of renewable energy is foreseen to grow steadily in the near future, led mainly by electricity production via solar photovoltaic (PV) conversion (see Figure 1a). Energies 2018, 11, 3477; doi:10.3390/en11123477 www.mdpi.com/journal/energies N PV WIND OTHER G C R
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