Multiple threats to regional food production: environment, economy, population?

Abstract

It has been suggested that environmental degradation, economic growth, the population explosion and climate change pose present or potential threats to food security and that these threats would be exacerbated through conjunctive interrelationships. While evidence exists to support this view, the complexity of interrelationships and the level of uncertainty associated with each threat calls for closer examination. This paper considers the methodological difficulties enstraining a balanced assessment of the four threats. The nature of each threat is examined in turn. The conjunction of these threats to food security does occur, but not in a spatially or temporarily consistent manner. Furthermore, there is considerable uncertainty regarding the ability of physical and economic models to correctly represent the dynamic feedback processes of the real world. The lack of certainty has generated polarized views regarding the potential impact of these threats. Over-simplification has generated the claim that these factors present an unprecedented challenge to world food security. This alternate perspective holds that technological advances and policy corrections could overcome food production constraints and achieve sustainable growth. Both views need to be challenged, though the paper concludes that the latter carries more strength.