Abstract
Recent increases in destructive wildfires are driving a need for empirical research documenting factors that contribute to structure loss. Existing studies show that fire risk is complex and varies geographically, and the role of vegetation has been especially difficult to quantify. Here, we evaluated the relative importance of vegetation cover at local (measured through the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and landscape (as measured through the Wildland–Urban Interface) scales in explaining structure loss from 2013 to 2018 in California—statewide and divided across three regions. Generally, the pattern of housing relative to vegetation better explained structure loss than local-scale vegetation amount, but the results varied regionally. This is likely because exposure to fire is a necessary first condition for structure survival, and sensitivity is only relevant once the fire reaches there. The relative importance of other factors such as long-term climatic variability, distance to powerlines, and elevation also varied among regions. These suggest that effective fire risk reduction strategies may need to account for multiple factors at multiple scales. The geographical variability in results also reinforces the notion that “one size does not fit all”. Local-scale empirical research on specific vegetation characteristics relative to structure loss is needed to inform the most effective customized plan.
Highlights
Published: 12 March 2021In the last three out of four years, California has experienced record-setting wildfires that have cumulatively added up to more than 50,000 structures destroyed
The ranking of the deviance explained for surrounding vegetation compared to other explanatory variables was low statewide and in all regions except for Southern CA, where the deviance explained for Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the 30-m buffer was the top-ranking explanatory variable (Figure 3)
Our comparison of vegetation pattern and amount generally identified the pattern of vegetation and housing to better explain structure loss than local-scale vegetation amount
Summary
In the last three out of four years, California has experienced record-setting wildfires that have cumulatively added up to more than 50,000 structures destroyed. Scientific study of structure loss in wildfire—and why it occurs—is starting to mature. One of the most important overall conclusions resulting from this research is that structure loss is a complex function of multiple interacting factors that vary geographically [4,5,6], and that much more work is needed to parse out the relative importance of different factors at different scales. One of the factors that has been difficult to quantify empirically is the role of vegetation surrounding structures and in surrounding landscapes. Defensible space—the reduction of woody vegetation within a buffer surrounding the structure—is widely advocated for its potential to minimize structure loss. Few studies have been conducted to evaluate its role empirically, its beneficial effects on reducing fire risk have been demonstrated via Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations
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