Multiple relationships between fixed-asset investment and industrial structure evolution in China–Based on Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) analysis and VAR model

Abstract

Industrial structure can describe not only the structural relationships between industrial output capacities, but also the structural relationships between industrial economic outputs. Fixed-asset investment affects industrial structure through the formation of capital stock and contemporaneous demand. Based on VAR model, this paper utilizes Granger causality test and other econometric methods to analyze the hysteresis relationships between fixed-asset investment and industrial structure in China from 1991 to 2017. In addition, the contemporaneous relationships are identified by employing the Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) analysis. The results show that: The hysteresis relationships exist in primary and secondary industries between fixed-asset investment and their respective value added. The fixed-asset investment in primary and tertiary industries are the contemporaneous causes of positive effect to the value added of primary industry. And the value added of secondary industry is the contemporaneous cause of positive effect to its fixed-asset investment.