Multiple Regression Model Using Performance Indices for Storage Capacity of a Reservoir System in Johor Catchment

Abstract

Storage–yield–reliability (S–Y–R) relationship is useful in many areas of hydrology and water resources. With the availability of such a relationship, reservoir planning analysis can be implemented much more rapidly and at a much shorter time needed for sequential analysis applying time series data. Existing relationships have been developed mostly for over-year capacity without considering both reliability and vulnerability performance indices. Hence, in this study, streamflow data from Johor river was used to develop a predictive relationship for total (i.e. within-year plus over-year) storage capacity involving both reliability and vulnerability performance indices as for use during reservoir planning. The reservoir was analyzed using 1000 sequences of synthetic data having the same length as historical data involving both time-based reliability and vulnerability performance indices by modified SPA. The model was then calibrated based on the mean of 1000 simulation results. Subsequently, the performance of the model was observed by comparing the model’s results with simulation outcomes for study systems. It was found that the performance of the model was very good in reproducing, the total storage capacity.