Multiple regional climate model projections to assess building thermal performance in Brazil: Understanding the uncertainty

Abstract

Understanding the trends and uncertainties in Building Energy Simulation (BES) performance indicators under future climate conditions is crucial for mitigating issues such as overheating and power outages. To address this, we generated a set of weather files for all 27 state capitals in Brazil, considering six climate model projections (three General Circulation Models as driving models and two nested Regional Climate Models) and two distinct emission scenarios from the CORDEX project. We analyzed the variability in climatic variables and subsequently performed BES on a representative Brazilian social housing unit to evaluate its impact on the performance indicators outcomes. Consistent with previous studies, a substantial increase in cooling-related demands was observed in the more pessimistic scenario (RCP8.5) and mild increases in the more optimistic scenario (RCP2.6), with a trend toward stabilization after 2050. Regarding uncertainties, we found higher Relative Standard Deviation (RSD) values for the cooling degree hours indicator. The capitals in the Central-West, Southeast, and South regions exhibited greater uncertainty regarding temperature indicators, whereas the irradiation parameters displayed higher uncertainties in the Northeast region. For the BES outcomes, RSD values as high as 19.9% were found for cooling load values. It was also demonstrated that locations, periods, and scenarios exhibit different extreme climate model projections. Ideally, employing an ensemble of weather files developed from other models would help assess associated uncertainties in the building performance indicators.