Multiple Margins of China's Export Growth: A Two-Mode Network Dynamic Analysis

Abstract

Using China's Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding Systems (HS) six-digit trade data for 1999–2013 from the UN Comtrade database, we redistribute and re-estimate the intensive and extensive margins of China's export growth on the basis of a dynamic products–markets two-mode network. Three main results emerge. First, the intensive margin was the main reason for China's export growth, and the contribution of the extensive margin was limited. Second, intensive margin and product margin were mainly concentrated in developed countries and China's neighbours, but the market margin was more distributed in developing countries and China's neighbours. Finally, countries along the “One Belt, One Road” have larger and growing contributions to China's export growth. In light of our findings, we provide a set of policy recommendations.