Abstract

Multilevel models often include nonlinear effects, such as random slopes or interaction effects. The estimation of these models can be difficult when the underlying variables contain missing data. Although several methods for handling missing data such as multiple imputation (MI) can be used with multilevel data, conventional methods for multilevel MI often do not properly take the nonlinear associations between the variables into account. In the present paper, we propose a sequential modeling approach based on Bayesian estimation techniques that can be used to handle missing data in a variety of multilevel models that involve nonlinear effects. The main idea of this approach is to decompose the joint distribution of the data into several parts that correspond to the outcome and explanatory variables in the intended analysis, thus generating imputations in a manner that is compatible with the substantive analysis model. In three simulation studies, we evaluate the sequential modeling approach and compare it with conventional as well as other substantive-model-compatible approaches to multilevel MI. We implemented the sequential modeling approach in the R package mdmb and provide a worked example to illustrate its application.

Highlights

  • Multilevel models have become one of the standard tools for analyzing clustered data

  • The key feature of this approach is that the joint distribution of the variables in the imputation model is decomposed into a part that represents the substantive analysis model of interest and a part that represents the model for the incomplete explanatory variables

  • The mdmb package allows for both (a) Bayesian estimation of multilevel models and (b) multilevel multiple imputation (MI), we focus on multilevel MI, which comes with the advantage that it separates the treatment of missing data from the analysis (Carpenter & Kenward, 2013)

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Summary

Introduction

Multilevel models have become one of the standard tools for analyzing clustered data (e.g., with individuals clustered within groups or repeated measurements clustered within persons; see Raudenbush & Bryk 2002; Snijders & Bosker 2012). Nonlinear effects are extremely common in multilevel research, for example, in models that include random slopes or crosslevel interactions and allow the relations between variables to differ between clusters For this reason, it has been recommended that so-called substantive-model-compatible methods be used for multilevel MI (e.g., Goldstein et al 2014; Enders et al 2020). The key feature of this approach is that the joint distribution of the variables in the imputation model is decomposed into a part that represents the substantive analysis model of interest (e.g., a multilevel model with random slopes and cross-level interaction effects) and a part that represents the model for the incomplete explanatory variables. The sequential modeling approach in the mdmb package allows for the flexible treatment of auxiliary variables with multilevel data

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