Multiple forecasts of kharif rice in orissa state-four year experience of fasal pilot study

Abstract

Considering the requirement of multiple pre-harvest crop forecasts, the concept of Forecasting Agricultural output using Space, Agrometeorology and Land based observations (FASAL) has been formulated. Development of procedure and demonstration of this technique for four in-season forecasts for kharif rice has been carried out as a pilot study in Orissa State since 1998. As the availability of cloud-free optical remote sensing data during kharif season is very poor for Orissa state, multi-date RADARSAT SCANSAR data were used for acreage estimation of kharif rice. Meteorological models have been developed for early assessment of acreage and prediction of yield at mid and late crop growth season. Four in-season forecasts were made during four kharif seasons (1998-2001); the first forecast of zone level rice acreage at the beginning of kharif crop season using meteorological models, second forecast of district level acreage at mid growth season using two-date RADARSAT SCANSAR data and yield using meteorological models, third forecast at late growth season of district level acreage using three-date RADARSAT SCANSAR data and yield using meteorological models and revised forecast incorporating field observations at maturity. The results of multiple forecasts have shown rice acreage estimation and yield prediction with deviation up to 14 and 11 per cent respectively. This study has demonstrated the potential of FASAL concept to provide inseason multiple forecasts using data of remote sensing, meteorology and land based observations.