Multiple-factor optimistic value based model and parameter estimation for uncertain portfolio optimization

Abstract

In the traditional portfolio models, the return rates of risky assets are usually defined as random variables or fuzzy variables. However, when some events such as financial crises or wars occur that can cause instability in financial markets, the results of these assumptions are not always satisfactory. Therefore, some scholars try to use uncertain variables to express the return rates. In this paper, a two-factor uncertain portfolio problem under optimistic value criteria is studied, where we use the optimistic value instead of expected value to describe the investment return and study the impact of economic circumstance factor and corporation’s specificity factor on the return rates. Firstly, a two-factor optimistic value-variance-entropy model with background risk is constructed, in which the total investment return consists of the risky asset return and the background asset return. Then, considering the investors with two kinds of risk preferences, a three-step method is applied to convert the bi-objective optimization model. Moreover, a moment estimation method is used to process the expert-estimated data on the return rates. Finally, a numerical simulation is presented for showing the applicability of our models and solution method.