Multiple effects of climate changes and human activities on NPP increase in the Three-north Shelter Forest Program area

Abstract

In the framework of ecological engineering, vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) has grown dramatically in the Three-north Shelter Forest Program area (TSFPA), which is influenced by both human activities and climate change, as well as their interaction. However, it remains unclear how the individual (pure effects) and interactive (shared and coupling effects) impacts affect and maintain the growing vegetation NPP trend. In this study, the monotonically increasing NPP trend from nonlinear trends was detected using Ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), and its persistence was investigated using boosted regression tree (BRT) models. We investigated the relative contributions of environmental factors and variable interactions, as well as spatially identified the multiple effects of climate change and human activities on the increasing trend and its persistence over TSFPA. The results indicated that: (1) The vegetation NPP was dominated by the monotonically increasing trend (41.08 %), and 30.04 % of all pixels can still maintain NPP increment. (2) Although soil moisture exhibited the highest interaction with the precipitation seasonality (32.21 %) on the monotonically increasing NPP trend, land-use change substantially interacted with soil moisture (26.97 %), snowmelt (23.34 %), and net solar radiation (13.43 %). (3) The monotonically increasing vegetation NPP was caused not only by the pure effects of climate change (23.57 %) and human activities (11.69 %) directly but also by their coupling effects (26.64 %) or shared effects (38.10 %) interactively. (4) The shared effects (50.94 %) dominated the persistently increasing NPP trend, whereas the coupling effects (78.78 %) dominated the non-persistently increasing NPP trend. The findings highlight the importance of the pure, shared, and coupling effects of human activities and climate change interactively for elucidating the driving of the vegetation NPP increment and its persistence over ecological engineering areas.