Abstract
Following its initial appearance in December 2019, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) quickly spread around the globe. Here, we evaluated the role of climate (temperature and precipitation), region-specific COVID-19 susceptibility (BCG vaccination factors, malaria incidence, and percentage of the population aged over 65 years), and human mobility (relative amounts of international visitors) in shaping the geographical patterns of COVID-19 case numbers across 1,020 countries/regions, and examined the sequential shift that occurred from December 2019 to June 30, 2020 in multiple drivers of the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases. Our regression model adequately explains the cumulative COVID-19 case numbers (per 1 million population). As the COVID-19 spread progressed, the explanatory power (R2) of the model increased, reaching > 70% in April 2020. Climate, host mobility, and host susceptibility to COVID-19 largely explained the variance among COVID-19 case numbers across locations; the relative importance of host mobility and that of host susceptibility to COVID-19 were both greater than that of climate. Notably, the relative importance of these factors changed over time; the number of days from outbreak onset drove COVID-19 spread in the early stage, then human mobility accelerated the pandemic, and lastly climate (temperature) propelled the phase following disease expansion. Our findings demonstrate that the COVID-19 pandemic is deterministically driven by climate suitability, cross-border human mobility, and region-specific COVID-19 susceptibility. The identification of these multiple drivers of the COVID-19 outbreak trajectory, based on mapping the spread of COVID-19, will contribute to a better understanding of the COVID-19 disease transmission risk and inform long-term preventative measures against this disease.
Highlights
The spread of infectious diseases through host–pathogen interaction is fundamentally underpinned by macroecological and biogeographical processes [1, 2]; key processes include virus origination, dispersal, and evolutional diversification through local transmissions in human societies [3]
We evaluated the relative importance of climate, region-specific COVID-19 susceptibility (BCG vaccination factors, malaria incidence, and the relative proportion of citizens aged over 65 years in the population, as these were hypothesized to be linked with host susceptibility to COVID-19), and human mobility in shaping the current geographical patterns of COVID-19 spread around the world
COVID-19 spread rapidly across the globe after it first appeared in Wuhan, China in December, 2019 (Li et al 2020) (Fig 1; S1 Video), but the outbreak appears to have occurred in particular climates around 8 ̊C and 26 ̊C or biomes (Fig 2; S2 Video)
Summary
The spread of infectious diseases through host–pathogen interaction is fundamentally underpinned by macroecological and biogeographical processes [1, 2]; key processes include virus origination, dispersal, and evolutional diversification through local transmissions in human societies [3]. We evaluated the relative importance of climate (temperature and precipitation relevant to habitat suitability for SARS-CoV-2), region-specific COVID-19 susceptibility (BCG vaccination factors, malaria incidence, and the relative proportion of citizens aged over 65 years in the population, as these were hypothesized to be linked with host susceptibility to COVID-19), and human mobility (international travel) in shaping the current geographical patterns of COVID-19 spread around the world.
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