Multiple criterion management of a sequential fishery

Abstract

A static stochastic simulation was used to assess the performance of alternative management strategies in the satisfaction of multiple objective criteria in the context of a sequentially exploited transboundary resource. The model was applied to the Yukon River chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) fishery. Four strategies were evaluated using three criteria: probability of satisfying escapement objectives; probability of jointly satisfying escapement and subsistence harvest objectives; and probability of simultaneously reaching escapement, subsistence and commercial harvest objectives. The modeled strategies were also compared with the actual performance of the fishery for 1980–1995. The results indicate that satisfaction of escapement and subsistence harvest goals in the middle Yukon depends on imposing restrictive limits on commercial harvests in the lower Yukon. However, even with full information, escapement objectives in the upper drainage are only satisfied 65–70% and 75–80% of the time for summer and fall chum, respectively. The model was also used to explore the effects of increased average run strength that could arise from reduced bycatch of Yukon origin chum in marine fisheries. The results suggest that reduced marine interceptions are unlikely to substantially increase the probability of satisfying catch and escapement goals for the middle and upper Yukon.