Multiple criteria decision aiding as a prediction tool for migration potential of regions

Abstract

This study presents the potential of multiple criteria decision aiding (MCDA) as a tool for prediction analysis. We apply MCDA methodology for the determination of internal migration potential of regions within a country. The ELECTRE Tri-C together with the Multiple Criteria Hierarchy Process (MCHP), the imprecise SRF method and the Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis (SMAA) will be applied to investigate the case of the internal migrations in Serbia. We shall give recommendations regarding the migration potential of Serbian municipalities in the following years. In particular, the ELECTRE Tri-C will be applied to classify the regions in four classes ordered with respect to regions’ migration potential, MCHP will be used to take into account the hierarchical structure of criteria on which the municipalities are evaluated. Finally, the imprecise SRF method, as well as the SMAA methodology, will be used to take into account the preferences of numerous economic agents.