Multiple Climate Change Scenarios and Runoff Response in Biliu River

Xueping Zhu,Chi Zhang,Wei Qi,Xueni Wang,Xuehua Zhao,Wenjun Cai

doi:10.3390/w10020126

Abstract

The impacts of temperature and precipitation changes on regional evaporation and runoff characteristics have been investigated for the Biliu River basin, which is located in Liaoning Province, northeast China. Multiple climate change scenarios from phase 3 and phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5) (21 scenarios in total) were utilized. A calibrated hydrologic model—SWAT model—was used to simulate future discharges based on downscaled climate data through a validated morphing method. Results show that both annual temperature and precipitation increase under most of the CMIP3 and CMIP5 scenarios, and increase more in the far future (2041–2065) than in the near future (2016–2040). These changes in precipitation and temperature lead to an increase in evaporation under 19 scenarios and a decrease in runoff under two-thirds of the selected scenarios. Compared to CMIP3, CMIP5 scenarios show higher temperature and wider ranges of changes in precipitation and runoff. The results provide important information on the impacts of global climate change on water resources availability in the Biliu River basin, which is beneficial for the planning and management of water resources in this region.

Highlights

It has been recognized that climate change could have profound impacts on the global water cycle [1,2,3]
The SWAT and model used is calibrated andregion validated basedThis on observed data; second, variations of precipitation temperature in the study are based on observed data;data second, variations of precipitation temperature the study region studied based on general circulation models (GCMs) fromthe
This study investigated the variations of future climate and water resources availability in an important river basin in northeast China

Summary

Introduction

It has been recognized that climate change could have profound impacts on the global water cycle [1,2,3]. It is important to consider potential impacts of climate change in the planning and management of regional water resources. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3. (CMIP3) and phase 5 (CMIP5) have provided abundant climate data (e.g., the IPCC’s AR5) [11], and both CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate datasets have been widely utilized globally [12,13,14,15,16]. Several studies have revealed that, compared to CMIP3, CMIP5 ensemble simulations have substantially improved the statistical representation of daily mean precipitation and temperature [17,18]. Few studies have compared the impacts of CMIP3 and CMIP5 on the design of the planning and management infrastructure of water resources [19,20,21], especially in China [22]

Objectives

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion