Multiperspective view of the 1976 drought–heatwave event and its changing likelihood

Abstract

Abstract1976 was one of the most acute droughts in the UK, exceptional due to the compounding effects of low rainfall and hot summer temperatures. In this study, we provide a multiperspective view of the likelihood of a 1976‐like compound event occurring now and into the future. We find a high level of consistency in the messages emerging across a range of different approaches and climate modelling tools, from convection‐permitting climate projections to decadal hindcasts and global coupled‐model attribution ensembles. 1976 summer average temperatures remain, at the time of writing, amongst the highest on record, but with warming are becoming increasingly common. The nine‐month rainfall deficit to August 1976 was incredibly rare. Analysis here indicates that compound extremes like 1976 are expected to occur on time‐scales of hundreds to thousands of years in the present‐day climate, decreasing slightly into the future. The probability remains very small even if we account for favourable sea surface temperatures and atmospheric circulation that occurred in 1976. Similar but less severe events with a 1% chance of occurring in the present day are five times more frequent from the 2040s under RCP8.5. The occurrence of such compound events is significantly (up to an order of magnitude) higher than expected if temperature and rainfall extremes occurred independently. In general, differences in likelihood estimates between approaches can begin to be understood from how dependence between variables is handled, differences in bias correction, and different levels of conditioning (i.e., the probability given particular atmospheric or ocean states). The appropriate choice of conditioning very much depends on the question being asked and its unconscious use may lead to apparent contradictions. Parallels can be drawn between 1976 and the recent summer of 2022, and results here suggest that with hotter summers we should be prepared for more severe droughts like 1976 in the future.