Abstract
In this paper, we investigate the effects of inaccurate parameter estimation on the quality of strategy selection for decision analysis problems possessing a notion of state. Motivation for this investigation results from problems inherent in the accurate estimation of false-negative and false-positive probabilities and other parameters associated with application of decision analysis to medical decision making. Two basic issues are addressed. The first is concerned with determining a computationally attractive procedure, based on single-parameter variation, that suggests how inaccurately estimates can be made without affecting the optimality of the strategy chosen on the basis of parameter estimates. The second is concerned with determining bounds on the degradation of expected utility function value resulting from applying a possibly suboptimal strategy thought to be optimal on the basis of parameter estimates.
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