Multiparameter flood hazard, socioeconomic vulnerability and flood risk assessment for densely populated coastal city

Abstract

In the current study, flood risk assessment of densely populated coastal urban Surat City, on the bank of the lower Tapi River in India, was conducted by combining the hydrodynamic model-based flood hazard and often neglected socioeconomic vulnerability. A two-dimensional (2D) hydrodynamic (HD) model was developed using physically surveyed topographic data and the existing land use land cover (LULC) of the study area (5248 km2). The satisfactory performance of the developed model was ascertained by comparing the observed and simulated water levels/depths across the river and floodplain. The 2D HD model outputs with geographic information system (GIS) applications were further used to develop probabilistic multiparameter flood hazard maps for coastal urban city. During a 100-year return period flood (Peak discharge = 34,459 m3/s), 86.5% of Surat City and its outskirt area was submerged, with 37% under the high hazard category. The north and west zones are the worst affected areas in Surat City. The socioeconomic sensitivity and adaptive capacity indicators were selected at the city's lowest administrative (ward) level. The socioeconomic vulnerability was evaluated by employing the robust data envelopment analysis (DEA) technique. Fifty-five of 89 wards in Surat City, covering 60% of the area under the jurisdiction of the Municipal Corporation, are highly vulnerable. Finally, the flood risk assessment of the city was conducted using a bivariate technique describing the distinctive contribution of flood hazard and socioeconomic vulnerability to risk. The wards adjoining the river and creek are at high flood risk, with an equal contribution of hazard and vulnerability. The ward-level hazard, vulnerability, and risk assessment of the city will help local and disaster management authorities to priorities high risk areas while planning flood management and mitigation strategies.