Multiobjective water resources investment planning under budgetary and socio-technical uncertainties

Abstract

An integration of stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) and integer goal programming (IGP) modeling framework is proposed to handle problems of multiobjective-multicriteria sequential decision making under budgetary and socio-technical uncertainties inherent in water resources investment planning. In the proposed SDP model, probabilities of the funding levels in any time period that are generated using a subjective model are employed to handle budgetary fluctuations. This subjective model consists of historical data as a basic rate, functional relationships among inter-related parameters of the SDP model, scenarios of future budget availability, and subjective inputs elicited from a group of decision makers through a collective opinion technique. Application of the SDP model primarily yields an optimal investment planning policy that recognizes the possibility that actual funding received maybe less than that anticipated, and therefore the projects being implemented under the anticipated budget would be interrupted. In this integrated model, economic return of each level of investment decision together with its associated project portfolio is determined by the IGP model based on goals and criteria preferences with explicit consideration to socio-technical uncertainty. >