Multi-objective optimization modelling for analysing sustainable development goals of Nigeria: Agenda 2030

Abstract

Sustainability of developmental goals remains the significant challenges for every nation in the world. In an environment of flexibility coupled with multiple and conflicting objectives on social economic, energy and environmental issues, a fuzzy goal programming approach proves to be suitable in helping policymakers for attaining their aspirational goals as it takes imprecise information into account. In this study, we proposed a multi-objective goal programming model to analyse the socio-economic, environmental and energy sector of Nigeria. The sectors relating to the gross domestic product, electricity consumption, employment and greenhouse gases emissions are regarded as the key sustainable development goals (SDGs) for the year 2030, upon which all other goals depend on directly or indirectly. We considered four scenarios based on decision-makers' value judgments using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Moreover, we have developed a weighted fuzzy goal programming model for the SDGs incorporating the AHP. The model reveals that individual goals are achievable at 81, 83, and 89 per cents, respectively, while the overall achievement function indicated only 73 per cent achievement is possible. The optimal employment for the various economic sectors is also computed at various tolerance values and presented alongside Pareto objective values. The results yielded an economic justification mathematically and provided insight for critical and future strategic planning towards achieving sustainable economic policies. The models can be replicated in the context of other nations in addressing long-term socio-economic planning and indispensable requirements for renewable sources inclusion to satisfy future energy demand economically without environmental damages.