Multi-Objective optimal scheduling of island microgrids considering the uncertainty of renewable energy output

Abstract

The grid connection of wind power and photovoltaics significantly increases the uncertainty of the operation and scheduling of power systems. The maximum power that can be transmitted in a particular time slot often fluctuates randomly around a certain value according to a certain probability distribution, and a prediction error occurs between the predicted and actual power. When the actual maximum power that wind power and photovoltaics can generate is less than the power arranged in the scheduling plan, a significant increase in operating costs will occur, as well as an increase in the frequency fluctuation of the microgrid. This may harm the system. To study the effects of the uncertainty of renewable energy output on microgrid dispatching, this paper divides power sources into basic load and frequency modulated (FM) power sources according to the FM characteristics and establishes a multi-objective optimal dispatching model of island microgrids considering the uncertainty of renewable energy output, using the economic benefit and frequency fluctuation rate of the microgrids as the optimization target. Additionally, this paper proposes a two-step optimal scheduling method based on power classification: First, the Monte Carlo method is used to estimate the expectation and variance of the objective function, and a certain number of samples are obtained through sampling. Second, the particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to determine the installation plan of the FM and base load power sources to minimize the average sample cost. Finally, a backpropagation neural network is used to construct the frequency modulation strategy of FM power sources. An analysis with examples shows that, in the context of many samples, the model and proposed two-step scheduling method are reasonable and effective.