Multiobjective hedging rules for flood water conservation

Abstract

AbstractFlood water conservation can be beneficial for water uses especially in areas with water stress but also can pose additional flood risk. The potential of flood water conservation is affected by many factors, especially decision makers' preference for water conservation and reservoir inflow forecast uncertainty. This paper discusses the individual and joint effects of these two factors on the trade‐off between flood control and water conservation, using a multiobjective, two‐stage reservoir optimal operation model. It is shown that hedging between current water conservation and future flood control exists only when forecast uncertainty or decision makers' preference is within a certain range, beyond which, hedging is trivial and the multiobjective optimization problem is reduced to a single objective problem with either flood control or water conservation. Different types of hedging rules are identified with different levels of flood water conservation preference, forecast uncertainties, acceptable flood risk, and reservoir storage capacity. Critical values of decision preference (represented by a weight) and inflow forecast uncertainty (represented by standard deviation) are identified. These inform reservoir managers with a feasible range of their preference to water conservation and thresholds of forecast uncertainty, specifying possible water conservation within the thresholds. The analysis also provides inputs for setting up an optimization model by providing the range of objective weights and the choice of hedging rule types. A case study is conducted to illustrate the concepts and analyses.