Abstract
Contraceptive use is viewed as a safe and affordable way to halt rapid population growth and reduce maternal and infant mortality. Its use in Kenya remains a challenge despite the existence of family planning programmes initiated by the government and other stakeholders aimed at reducing fertility rate and increasing contraceptive use. This study aimed at modeling contraceptive use in Kenya among women of reproductive age using Multinomial logistic regression technique. A household based cross-sectional study was conducted between November 2008 and March 2009 by Kenya National Bureau of Statistics on women of reproductive age to determine the country’s Contraceptive Prevalence Rate and Total Fertility Rate among other indicators, whose results informed my data source. Multinomial logistic regression analysis was done in R version 3.2.1. statistical package. Modern method was the most preferred contraceptive method, of which Injectable, female sterilization and pills were the common types. Descriptive Analysis showed richest women aged between 30-34 years used modern contraceptives, while poorer women aged 35-39 years preferred traditional method. Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis found marital status, Wealth category, Education level, place of Residence and the number of children a woman had as significant factors while age, religion and access to a health facility were insignificant. Simulation study showed that MLR parameters estimates converged to their true values while their standard errors reduced as sample size increased. Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic of the MLR parameter estimates decreased while the P-value increased as the sample size increased and remained statistically insignificant. Marital status, Wealth category, Education level, place of Residence and the number of children a woman had could determine the contraceptive method a woman would choose, while age, religion and access to a health facility had no influence on the decision of choosing folkloric, traditional or modern method of contraception. MLR parameter estimates are consistent and normally distributed.
Highlights
The analysis showed that wealth status, level of education, ownership of health insurance, number of surviving children, marital status, location and geographical area of residence, religion and women autonomy, significantly correlated with the contraceptive use among women in Ghana
Modern Method Relative to Folkloric Method The multinomial logistic regression of modern method relative to folkloric method showed that education level a woman attained, place of residence, number of living children she has, marital status and her wealth status determined the use of modern contraceptives with P-value < 0.05
The multinomial logistic regression model to predict the probability of a woman choosing modern method with respect to folkloric method was; Contraceptive method~ Marital status + Wealth Index + Highest Education level + Residence
Summary
The use of Contraceptive is the most effective method of reducing unintended pregnancies and abortions, and its use has greatly improved maternal, infant and child health and survival. According to an article done in 2000 by Grimes, 600,000 women die globally every year from pregnancy-related causes, of which 75,000 cases are due to unsafe abortions. “Mothers who have unintended births tend to suffer postpartum depression, feelings of powerlessness, increased time pressure and a general physical health. The study used secondary data derived from the results of Kenya Demographic and Health Survey conducted between November 2008 and March 2009 by Kenya National Bureau of Statistics on women of reproductive age to determine the country’s Contraceptive Prevalence Rate and Total Fertility Rate among other indicators
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