Multimodel projections and uncertainties of net ecosystem production in China over the twenty-first century

Abstract

Ecosystems in China have been absorbing anthropogenic CO2 over the last three decades. Here, we assess future carbon uptake in China using models from phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project under four socio-economic scenarios. The average of China’s carbon sink from 2006 to 2100 represented by multimodel mean net ecosystem production (NEP) is projected to increase (relative to averaged NEP from 1976 to 2005) in the range of 0.137 and 0.891 PgC a−1 across different scenarios. Increases in NEP are driven by increases in net primary production exceeding increases in heterotrophic respiration, and future carbon sink is mainly attributed to areas located in eastern China. However, there exists a considerable model spread in the magnitude of carbon sink and model spread tends to be larger when future climate change becomes more intense. The model spread may result from intermodel discrepancy in the magnitude of CO2 fertilization effect on photosynthesis, soil carbon turnover time, presence of carbon-nitrogen cycle and interpretation of land-use changes. For better quantifying future carbon cycle, a research priority toward improving model representation of these processes is recommended.