Multimodel ensemble simulations of present and future climates over West Africa: Impacts of vegetation dynamics

Abstract

AbstractIn this study, we take an ensemble modeling approach using the regional climate model RegCM4.3.4‐CLM‐CN‐DV (RCM) to study the impact of including vegetation dynamics on model performance in simulating present‐day climate and on future climate projections over West Africa. The ensemble consists of four global climate models (GCMs) as lateral boundary conditions for the RCM, and simulations with both static and dynamic vegetation are conducted. The results demonstrate substantial sensitivity of the simulated precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture to vegetation representation. Although including dynamic vegetation in the model eliminates potential inconsistencies between surface climate and the bioclimatic requirements of the prescribed vegetation, it enhances model biases causing climate drift. For present‐day climate, the ensemble average generally outperforms individual members due to cancelation of model biases. For future changes, although the original GCMs project contradicting future rainfall trends over West Africa, the RCMs‐produced trends are generally consistent. The multimodel ensemble projects significant decreases of rainfall over a major portion of West Africa and significant increases over eastern Sahel and East Africa. Projected future changes of evapotranspiration and soil moisture are consistent with those of precipitation, with significant decreases (increases) for western (eastern) Sahel. Accounting for vegetation‐climate interactions has localized but significant impacts on projected future changes of precipitation, with a wet signal over a belt of projected increase of woody vegetation cover; the impact on the projected future changes of evapotranspiration and soil moisture over west and central Africa is much more profound.