Multimodel Ensemble Prediction for Climate Change Trend of China Under Sres A2 Scenario

Abstract

AbstractBased on the outputs as simulated by seven climate models under SRES A2 greenhouse gas and aerosol scenario, we analyze the decadal climate change trend of China during 2001~2030. It is indicated that the surface temperature, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature over China rise by 0.3~2.3°C, 0.1~2.0°C, and 0.5~2.7°C, respectively, and warming s generally larger toward high latitudes and gradually intensifies with time march. In addition, the warming of variables mentioned above is larger in winter than synchronizing summer, and the enhancement of minimum temperature is larger than maximum temperature in the corresponding period, which consequently leads to the smaller intra‐seasonal variation of surface temperature. The winter anomalies of sea level pressure over East Asia are confined within –1.0hPa to 0.4hPa and exhibit a belt‐like distribution, with the positive (negative) values in south (north) East Asia. Moreover, the anomaly will become larger, and the zero contour line will move southward with time running. At the same time larger negative values appear in northeast, north, and west China. The sea level pressure anomalies in summer generally resemble that in winter. It is also shown that summer precipitation will increase by 0.1~0.8mm/d over most parts of Qinghai‐Xizang Plateau, southeast China, and Hetao region during 2001~2030.