Multi-model Combination Techniques for Flood Forecasting from the Distributed Hydrological Model EasyDHM

Abstract

AbstractThe independently-developed distributed hydrological model EasyDHM, supplies four different runoff-generation simulation methods and three different conflux simulation methods. Each has its own advantages and disadvantages. In order to increase the accuracy of flood forecast of EasyDHM, this paper studied on several multi-model combination techniques for these different simulation methods, including the simple model average method, weighted average method, adaptive simple average method and adaptive weighted average method. These combination techniques were applied to the Taoer River in Northeast China, and evaluated from the intercom parison of results by single-model simulations and results by other combination methods in this paper. The study revealed that the multi-model simulations are generally better than any single-member model simulations. Furthermore, different multi-model combination techniques also showed different affection to the accuracy levels of flood forecasting.KeywordsFlood ForecastingMulti-model CombinationDistributed Hydrological ModelEasyDHM