Multi‐model analysis of regional dry and wet conditions for the Carpathian Region

Abstract

ABSTRACTThe estimated future changes of precipitation and precipitation‐related climate indices for the Carpathian Region are analysed in this paper. Eleven regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the ENSEMBLES project taking into account the intermediate A1B emission scenario are used, hence, the analysis also includes uncertainty assessments. Validation results showed that in the target area RCM simulations overestimate precipitation throughout the year, except in summer, when underestimation occurs. In order to eliminate these systematic errors before the detailed analysis, percentile‐based bias correction is applied to the raw RCM outputs, for which the high‐quality CARPATCLIM database (1961–2010) serves as a reference. Using the bias‐corrected RCM simulations, precipitation totals and several precipitation‐related indices (describing both wet and dry climatic conditions) are calculated for the 1961–2100 time period on seasonal scale for the entire Carpathian Region, and also for five subregions (Slovakia, Ukraine, Hungary, Romania, and Serbia) within this area. The results from RCM simulations are inconsistent for some indices in some seasons, thus introducing uncertainties to the climatic projections. However, according to our results, drier summers are very likely to occur in the future, mainly in the southern parts of the selected domain. More frequent and more intense extreme precipitation events are estimated for winter and autumn, especially in the northern regions. Our conclusions suggest that the spatial distribution of precipitation is not likely to change remarkably in the future, however, the annual distribution of precipitation is projected to be restructured.