Multimarket Trading Strategy of a Hydropower Producer Considering Active-Time Duration: A Distributional Regression Approach

Abstract

This article presents a new approach for finding the optimal multimarket trading strategy of cascaded hydropower plants (HPPs) in the sequential electricity markets. These markets are day-ahead energy market, the market for frequency containment reserve in normal mode (FCR-N), and manual frequency restoration reserve markets for both energy production and capacity reserve. The active-time duration (ATD) of an mFRR energy offer is an important required parameter and it is uncertain at the time of day-ahead offer-function submission. Hence, we suggest a distributional regression approach for ATD modeling in an optimal multimarket setup. Also, a modified machine learning approach is proposed to generate price scenarios for the mFRR energy market taking into account uncertain ATD parameters. To illustrate our proposed approach, various numerical experiments are performed. Our numerical results show how proper modeling of ATD parameters can lead to a more realistic multimarket offer-function for cascaded HPPs. Furthermore, the results show how the inclusion of FCR-N and mFRR capacity markets change the optimal day-ahead offer-function.