Multilevel Optimization Modeling for Risk-Averse Stochastic Programming

Abstract

Coherent risk measures have become a popular tool for incorporating risk aversion into stochastic optimization models. For dynamic models in which uncertainty is resolved at more than one stage, however, using coherent risk measures within a standard single-level optimization framework becomes problematic. To avoid severe time-consistency difficulties, the current state of the art is to employ risk measures of a specific nested form, which unfortunately have some undesirable and somewhat counterintuitive modeling properties. This paper summarizes the potential drawbacks of nested-form risk measure issues and then presents an alternative multilevel optimization modeling approach that enforces a form of time consistency through constraints rather than by restricting the modeler’s choice of objective function. This technique leads to models that are time consistent even while using time-inconsistent risk measures and can easily be formulated to be law invariant with respect to the final wealth if so desired. We argue that this approach should be the starting point for all multistage optimization modeling. When used with time-consistent objective functions, we show its multilevel optimization constraints become redundant, and the associated models thus simplify to a more familiar single-objective form. Unfortunately, we also show that our proposed approach leads to 𝒩𝒫-hard models, even in the simplest imaginable setting in which it would be needed: three-stage linear problems on a finite probability space, using the standard average value-at-risk and first-order mean-semideviation risk measures. Finally, we show that for a simple but reasonably realistic test application, the kind of models we propose, although drawn from an 𝒩𝒫-hard family and certainly more time consuming to solve than those obtained from the nested-objective approach, are readily solvable to global optimality using a standard commercial mixed-integer linear programming solver. Therefore, there seems some promise of our proposed modeling approach being useful despite its computational complexity properties.