Multilevel Modelling of Individual Fertility Decisions in Tunisia: Household and Regional Contextual Effects

Abstract

In this study we examine the household and the contextual effects on the individual fertility decisions in Tunisia. We use the fourth round of the Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS4 Tunisia) conducted in 2011–2012 by the Ministry of Development and International Cooperation in collaboration with the National Institute of Statistics. We exploit the hierarchical structures of the MICS4 data to study the regional and contextual perspectives of fertility in Tunisia and to show that the environment and the place where households live influence their family size. Results are obtained from estimated fixed and random effects multilevel Poisson models. Both household and regional characteristics explain a significant portion of the variation in individual fertility decisions in Tunisia. More specifically, household’s economic situation and women education affect negatively fertility decisions suggesting that higher income households choose to invest more in quality than in quantity of children. In addition, the results suggest that contextual effects, such as the regional poverty rate, positively affect the number of children, while regional unemployment rate and the availability of women’s health centers have a negative impact.