Abstract
Reliable and accurate environmental state prediction can help in long-term sustainable planning and management. Enormous land-use/ land-cover (LULC) transformation has been increasing the carbon emissions (CEs) and land surface temperature (LST) around the world. The study aimed to (i) examine the influences of land specific CEs on LST dynamics and (ii) simulate future potential LULC, CEs and LST pattern of Khulna City Corporation. Landsat satellite images of the year 2000, 2010 and 2020 were used to derive LULC, LST and CEs pattern and change. The correlation between land-use indices (NDBI, NDVI, NDWI) and LST was examined to explore the impacts of LULC change on LST. Unplanned urbanization has increased 11.79 Km2(26.10%) buildup areas and 25,268 tons of CEs during 2000–2020. The calculated R2 value indicates the strong positive correlation between CEs and LST. To simulate the future LULC, CEs and LST pattern for the year 2030 and 2040, multi-layer perceptron-Markov chain (MLP-MC)-based artificial neural network model was utilized with the accuracy rate of 94.12%, 99% and 98.48% for LULC, LST and CEs model, respectively. The simulation shows that by 2040, buildup area will increase to 87.33%, net CEs will increase by 19.82 × 104tons, and carbon absorptions will decrease by 23. 55 × 104tons and 69.54% of the total study area's LST will be above 390C. Such predictions signify the necessity of implementing a sustainable urban development plan immediately for the sustainable, habitable and sound urban environment.
Highlights
Environmental change is currently one of the main causes of concern around the world [1]
This study explored the use of artificial neural network (ANN) to simulate and forecast future potential Land use and land cover (LULC), carbon emissions and absorptions (CEA) and land surface temperature (LST) pattern from a sequence of past three years
GIS-based Landsat image classification process shows that 26.10% (11.79 Km2) of other LULC types were transformed into buildup areas during 2000 to 2020 due to the effect of urbanization
Summary
Environmental change is currently one of the main causes of concern around the world [1]. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, carbon emissions, climate change, environmental change, ecological change, and the random condition have been expanding which are making the climate of any region inadmissible for human home [3,4,5]. This is directly and indirectly accelerating global temperature. Spatial GHG concentrations have risen from a C O2 equivalent of 280 to 450 ppm since the Industrial Revolution, but the proposed limit is 350 ppm [3]
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