Multilateralism in the Twenty-First Century

Abstract

The rise of geostrategic rivalry between the United States and China is changing international cooperation. As China seeks new influence and the United States seeks to contain China and to reduce its own international obligations, three dimensions of multilateralism are becoming particularly important. The first is the management of the superpower rivalry, through formal treaties, informal arrangements among states, and international institutions. The second is the capacity of the leadership of any international institution to foster cooperation beyond the immediate preferences of one or another of the most powerful member states. The third dimension is the legitimacy on which the authority of international institutions rests. The evolution of these three elements will shape the future of multilateralism, by which I refer to the arrangements created and agreed by states which facilitate cooperation by enshrining commitments to diffuse reciprocity and peaceful dispute settlement. The analysis of history and of variations in current practice in international cooperation underscores several ways in which international cooperation could be sustained even as the US-China rivalry strengthens. Global agencies can play a crucial role finding and highlighting areas where cooperation and competition can coexist, and where their own capacities to pool information, to reduce transactions costs, and to broker and monitor agreements can assist. This, in turn, requires high-quality leadership by people who can effectively broker agreements among countries, persuade countries to pool resources, and attract and organize an effective and highly motivated staff. Such leadership requires positive ongoing action by member states, to define what is required for effective leadership of the institutions they collectively create, to seek proven competence in each domain before appointing leaders, and to monitor ongoing performance. Finally, international institutions can buttress their legitimacy by finding better ways to ensure the participation of all stakeholders, and to respond rapidly and effectively to global crises and to provide global public goods.