Multilateralism as a Determinant of COVID-19 Outcomes in Small Island Developing States: Mitigating Disaster Impact Through Foreign Affairs Investment.

Abstract

Introduction:The United Nations (UN) recognizes Small Island Developing States (SIDS) as a heterogenous group with common geographic and socio-economic challenges. Their vulnerability to disasters was exacerbated during COVID-19 because of emerging nationalism and protectionism towards supply chains and resources. This study aimed to determine if multilateralism engagement improved COVID-19 outcomes and if Foreign Affairs investment improved short term COVID-19 outcomes.Method:Metrics were developed to reflect country parameters, clinical impact of COVID-19, engagement in multilateralism, health systems strength and integration in the International Political Economy. Open-source information was used to quantify proxy measures with the calculated percent spent on foreign affairs being the major proxy of multilateralism and disaster impact as lag time to vaccination, case burden and deaths in the first six months of 2020. Data was collected for each of the 38 SIDS. SPSS was used to assess possible correlations with short- and long-term clinical outcomes of the COVID-19 pandemic.Results:SIDS were noted to have an average lag of 4.1 months to begin vaccination rollout compared with developed nations and prolonged below global average vaccination rates. Expenditure on Foreign Affairs reduced the vaccination lag (p=0.03), decreased short-term cases (p<0.001) and deaths (p<0.001), Human Development Index improved vaccination rates (p<0.001) and lowered total cases (p=0.03). Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflow also decreased vaccination lag (0.02). Dependence on Foreign Aid decreased vaccination rates (p=0.01).Conclusion:These relationships suggest that there were multiple factors that determined short- and long-term health outcomes in SIDS. Mitigating the impact of a disaster therefore requires a multiple level investment solution that recognizes the importance of other actors in the global system. The COVID-19 experience suggests that engagement in multilateralism is important in countries that have a high vulnerability to disasters such as SIDS. This is valuable for future disasters in vulnerable states.