Multi-hazard assessment of long- and short-term extreme hydrometeorological events in southeastern South America

Abstract

Extreme hydrometeorological events (EHE) negatively affect ecosystems, human settlements, food production, water resources, and public health worldwide. In southeastern South America (SESA), the frequency and intensity of temperature and precipitation extremes have increased over recent decades. SESA is particularly vulnerable to EHE due to its high population rates and an economy heavily reliant on agricultural activities; therefore, advancing towards a climate-resilient development is a key goal for the region. This study presents a multi-hazard analysis of EHE and their changes over SESA. Our study assesses the frequency, duration, and intensity of short- and long-term EHE for the 1961-1990 and 1991-2020 periods. ERA5 precipitation, soil moisture, and temperature data at multiple time scales (from daily to monthly) are used, with a spatial resolution of 0.25°×0.25° latitude-longitude grid. Long-term EHE are studied using nonparametric standardized indices—specifically, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI)—at 3- and 18-month timescales to analyze agricultural and hydrological impacts. Short-term EHE are characterized by heavy precipitation, flash droughts, and heat waves events to analyze immediate impacts in urban areas and in agriculture. Individual hazard components are derived by multiplying the frequency, duration, and intensity of the identified events, followed by a rescaling to a 0-1 range using range normalization (with minimum and maximum values). The long-term and short-term EHE hazard indices are formulated by aggregating the rescaled individual hazard components and dividing by the total number of components. Changes in observed EHE hazard components are determined by comparing the EHE hazard indices for the 1991-2020 and 1961-1990 periods. Our findings underscore significant precipitation excess hazard, mainly concentrated in agriculture-prone areas spanning central-eastern Argentina, Uruguay, and southern Brazil across both 3- and 18-month timescales. In contrast, precipitation deficit hazard predominantly manifests in the western regions of SESA. Regarding short-term EHE, the highest hazard magnitudes are observed in northeastern Argentina, southern Brazil, and southeastern Paraguay. Heat waves occur frequently in the region, with hazardous intensities over the northern part of SESA. Additionally, heavy precipitation events constitute a significant hazard component for urban and rural infrastructure primarily in northeastern Argentina. Flash droughts also affect agriculture-prone areas, particularly with high intensity in southern Brazil, northeastern Argentina, and Uruguay. Our results reveal that the most significant changes are observed in short-term hazard indices in northeastern SESA. This region, which includes eastern Paraguay, northeastern Argentina, southern Brazil, and Uruguay, has experienced an increase in heat wave hazard, primarily due to a significant rise in the frequency of heat waves. Hazards associated with heavy precipitation and flash drought events have also increased, with a rise in their frequency and duration observed mainly over northeastern Argentina and southern Brazil. In contrast, long-term hazard indices exhibit non-uniform patterns of change. Our findings suggest that weather-related hazards have undergone changes over the last decades. We expect that these findings provide valuable insights to enhance SESA's hydroclimatic risk management systems by identifying areas susceptible to both short- and long-term hazards.