Multifactor Correlation-Registration Analysis for Modeling the Regional Social and Economic System in the Informational Adviser System

Abstract

The current state of modeling regional socio-economic systems cannot yet be defined as an effective tool for developing regional policy in the Russian Federation. The article presents an algorithm for modeling a regional socio-economic system for the needs of the developed information advising system. The authors have carried out an algorithm that substantiates the expediency of applying a specific mathematical function to describe trends in increasing indicators for forecasting the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation region in the devised information advising system. The article presents the experience of using multiple regression to simulate the values of the sample indicator of developing the regional socio-economic system “Investments in fixed capital” on the example of the Bryansk region. As the initial data, the departmental expenditure structure of the Bryansk region is used for the departments of economic growth, construction and architecture for 2011-2019. The regression equations are formed, and then the model is evaluated for reliability, and the results of the regression analysis for the estimated indicator are given. The article makes the conclusion that using multifactorial correlation and regression analysis to simulate a regional socio-economic system on the data of the Bryansk region will expand the capabilities of the developed information advising system.