Multifaceted economic impacts of a 500-year flood on gateway communities of Yellowstone National Park

Abstract

Disasters can have dramatic implications for gateway communities of National Parks, especially local economies that rely on park tourist visitation as their primary source of income. In June 2022, a 500-year flood event impacted Yellowstone National Park (YNP) and gateway businesses, both directly through infrastructure damages (property loss) and indirectly through park closures and post-disaster marketing. We used a combination of approaches to document and explore the relative importance of these diverse sources of economic impacts. First, structured surveys were used to evaluate economic impacts, from the perspective of individual business owners and community leaders in six gateway communities surrounding YNP. Average revenue loss was 48 % during peak tourist season across all communities but averaged 75 % for communities inaccessible to the park. Direct infrastructure damages to businesses were localized; however, even businesses sustaining property losses suggested more severe economic impacts were the result of loss of visitors from park closures and damaging media coverage. Using annual visitation and economic input-output model data, we developed a statistical model to estimate regional economic impacts from the flood. The model corroborated the results of our survey and suggested the flood led to a total loss of $156 million in visitor spending in gateway areas in 2022, exceeding economic losses from the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. We present some guidelines for building economic resilience in gateway communities, including diversifying sources of income, building social capital, embracing tourist adaptations, and developing coordinated park-gateway-regional messaging and marketing to the media post-disasters.