Multidimensional risk assessment and categorization of hydrogen pipelines

Abstract

The use of hydrogen has been shown to be an efficient form of producing energy and meeting society's demands for energy. In this perspective, pipelines are known as the safest and most economical transportation mode for hydrogen. However, accidents in this type of structure lead to multiple consequences of losses such as those related to people, the environment and properties. From this perspective, decision-makers are required to tackle the likelihood of these and to make suitable decisions that can prevent accidents from happening. Multicriteria methods have played an important role in addressing multiple risk problems when there is a need to assign priorities to risk-based decisions. This paper puts forward a multidimensional risk model to categorize hydrogen pipeline sections according to levels of risks based on Utility Theory and the ELECTRE TRI method. A probabilistic modeling is proposed so as to incorporate elements of risk analysis into the evaluation of situations such as accidental scenarios, their probabilities and consequences. An application of the model is presented for a hydrogen pipeline. The results demonstrate that measures to prevent and mitigate risks can be sharpened by taking into account the human, environmental and financial risks dimensions of impacts. Thus, the sections of the pipeline studied are sorted into categories of risks, where 4 out of 10 sections are assigned to the high-risk category, 1 to the medium-risk category, and 5 sections to the low-risk category. A local sensitivity analysis was conducted which varied the weights of the dimensions. Varying the weights by 20% showed that the risk of 3 sections increases to the medium-risk category and 1 section changes to the high-risk one. Moreover, this paper indicates visualization tools that are efficient at communicating information on the levels of risk and the categories of the sections, thus contributing to assessing models that categorize risk in hydrogen pipelines. By doing so this paper supports the process of prioritizing resources for pipeline sections, the aim being to minimize multiple losses.