Multidimensional Prognostic Index Predicts Clinical Outcome and Mortality in Hospitalised Older Patients with Diverticular Disease

Abstract

Introduction: The Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI) is a validated tool for assessing mortality risk in hospitalised patients. We aimed to evaluate whether the MPI predicted mortality and the risk of developing diverticular disease (DD) complications in older patients. Methods: This is a multicentre study conducted in January 2016-March 2018. All patients with DD aged 65 years and older were included. Patients were stratified into three groups according to MPI groups (1, low risk; 2, moderate risk; 3, high risk). Risk of developing DD complications and mortality rate were assessed. Bivariate models were fitted. Results: One hundred hospitalised patients with DD (mean age 77.9 ± 10.6 years, 53 female patients) were included. Patients with higher MPI groups were more likely to develop DD complications. In particular, 12 (46.2%), 21 (52.5%), and 28 (82.4%) patients with complicated DD were distributed to the MPI 1, MPI 2, and MPI 3 groups (p = 0.0063), respectively. Two patients died in the MPI 1, 4 in the MPI 2, and 29 in the MPI 3 group, with mortality rates of 4.0 per 100 person-year (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.0–15.9), 5.6 (95% CI 2.1–15.0), and 89.2 (95% CI 62–130), respectively (log-rank test p < 0.001). In bivariate analysis, after adjustment for age >80 years, Charlson Comorbidity Index >4, DD complications, and the presence of thromboembolism, higher MPI group was independently associated with higher mortality. Those in the MPI 3 group experienced a greater risk of 1-year hospital readmission (p < 0.001). Conclusion: MPI predicted mortality in patients with DD and also correlated with the risk of developing DD complications. Studies focussing on possible pathophysiological mechanisms between DD complications and MPI are needed.