Abstract

<p>The paper focuses on the nature of a population distribution (polarized or not) and its possible influence on societal conflict. Despite theoretical and empirical studies on the link between population’s polarization and social conflict, the relationship remains in question. Up to now, the role of a multidimensional polarization has been neglected and the determination of social classes by their roles and functions (and not by their resource level) has been ignored. To extend the research, we first define a multidimensional polarization index and approach it empirically through quantitative and qualitative data (often textual data) over a very long period in accordance with the historiographical method. First, this paper refutes the stereotype of a medieval French urban population polarized between rich and poor. Second, over the same period, we build a database of the intensity and occurrence of societal conflict on a sample of twenty-four French towns. The paper finds that over time the low initial degree of the population’s polarization continued to decline while societal violence was increasing. Third, whereas polarization is excluded as a determinant of societal conflict, the inter-group heterogeneity measure (or social distance) highlights some relationships. The results show that societal upheavals may be quite connected with the social distance index defined between the high and middle classes; moreover, this social unrest may be greatly related with the index defined between the high and the low classes. By contrast, the results find an outbreak of societal conflicts when social distances between the middle and low classes decrease.</p>

Highlights

  • Much research explores potential sources of societal conflict among various peoples of the world

  • The results show that societal upheavals may be quite connected with the social distance index defined between the high and middle classes; this social unrest may be greatly related with the index defined between the high and the low classes

  • The results find an outbreak of societal conflicts when social distances between the middle and low classes decrease

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Summary

Introduction

Much research explores potential sources of societal conflict among various peoples of the world. The measure of polarization and its impact on societal turmoil have been the subject of diverse contributions pioneered by Alesina and Rodrick (1994) Such papers consider that a polarized society is characterized by a population either “rich” or “poor”, or by a “vanishing” middle class (Quah, 1994, 1996), or a “disappearing middle” (Levy & Murname, 1992), or a distribution “spread out from the middle”, “hollowed out middle” or by a “tendency toward bimodality” (Foster & Wolfson, 1992; Wolfson, 1994, 1997). The paper studies the relationship between societal conflict and the inter-group heterogeneity index (one of the three determinants of the polarization measure), which is approximated by economic and social factors. The Appendix displays the full details of historical evidence, including the rating of the indexes and their indicators

Literature Review and Theoretical Background
Study Area
Multidimensional Polarization of the Population
Number and Size of Groups
Intra-Group Homogeneity
Inter-Group Heterogeneity
Societal Conflict
Population Distribution before the Political Rights Redistribution
Conclusion
Full Text
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