Abstract
As the focus of power companies such as State Grid Corporation of China, electricity sales forecasting is closely related to the development of enterprises and the country. The importance of accurate electricity sales forecasting in the context of electricity reform has become more and more prominent. The article takes electricity sales in Hunan Province as the research object, and constructs a more complete monthly electricity sales forecasting system based on the decomposition-integration idea, correlating electricity sales impact factors, and combining quantitative and qualitative analyses by categories. The prediction results show that the electricity sales forecasting model proposed in this paper has a high prediction accuracy under the existing data capacity level.
Highlights
Since March 15, 2015, my country's power system reform has been steadily advanced
As a key link in the operation of State Grid Corporation of China, electricity sales forecasting is closely related to corporate operating profits
In the context of China’s normalization of the economy, economic growth has slowed down, and electricity demand has stabilized. It has become one of the important adjustment tools to intensify the reform of the electricity market, gradually reduce the price of industrial and commercial electricity, bring new investment opportunities to society and enterprises and introduce mixed-ownership reforms in the electricity market to gradually for steadily releasing vitality of the electricity market
Summary
Since March 15, 2015, my country's power system reform has been steadily advanced. The goal of promoting power system reform is to straighten out the relationship between the state-owned economy, industry interests and economic development. In the context of China’s normalization of the economy, economic growth has slowed down, and electricity demand has stabilized. It has become one of the important adjustment tools to intensify the reform of the electricity market, gradually reduce the price of industrial and commercial electricity, bring new investment opportunities to society and enterprises and introduce mixed-ownership reforms in the electricity market to gradually for steadily releasing vitality of the electricity market. There are two types of Benchmark models for electricity sales forecasting They are mainly traditional econometric models and machine learning models. The data sources in this article are State Grid Hunan Electric Power Company and wind database
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