Abstract
Drought is one of the least understood and complex natural hazards often characterized by a significant decrease in water availability for a prolonged period. It can be manifested in one or more forms as meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and/or socio-economic drought. The overarching objective of this study is to demonstrate and characterize the different forms of droughts and to assess the multidimensional nature of drought in the Abbay/ Upper Blue Nile River (UBN) basin and its national and regional scale implications. In this study, multiple drought indices derived from in situ and earth observation-based hydro-climatic variables were used. The meteorological drought was characterized using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) computed from the earth observation-based gridded CHIRPS (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station) rainfall data. Agricultural and hydrological droughts were characterized by using the Soil Moisture Deficit Index (SMDI) and Standardized Runoff-discharge Index (SRI), respectively. The monthly time series of SMDI was derived from model-based gridded soil moisture and SRI from observed streamflow data from 1982 to 2019. The preliminary result illustrates the good performance of the drought indices in capturing the historic severe drought events (e.g., 1984 and 2002) and the spatial extents across the basin. The results further indicated that all forms of droughts (i.e., meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological) occurred concurrently in Abbay/Upper Blue Nile basin with a Pearson correlation coefficient ranges from 0.5 to 0.85 both Kiremt and annual aggregate periods. The concurrent nature of drought is leading to a multi-dimensional socio-economic crisis as indicated by rainfall, and soil moisture deficits, and drying of small streams. Multi-dimensional drought mitigation necessitates regional cooperation and watershed management to protect both the common water sources of the Abbay/Upper Blue Nile basin and the socio-economic activities of the society in the basin. This study also underlines the need for multi-scale drought monitoring and management practices in the basin.
Highlights
Drought is an abnormal weather event resulting primarily from the shortfall of precipitation for a prolonged period [1]
The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the different forms of droughts that occurred in the Abbay/Upper Blue Nile River basin and their national and regional scale implications
This study demonstrates the implication of the different forms of droughts at national and regional scales through drought monitoring approach using multiple drought indices in characterizing the different forms of droughts in the Upper Blue Nile Basin
Summary
Drought is an abnormal weather event resulting primarily from the shortfall of precipitation for a prolonged period [1]. Agriculture is the backbone for the economy of many developing countries including Ethiopia, it is often referred to as the first and the most drought vulnerable and less resilient sector [1]. The country has experienced the most severe and prominent drought events that covered the majority of its parts. Among the recent drought events, the 2015 drought was noted as the worst and widely spread in the eastern, central, and northwestern parts of the country. The major crop-producing and livestock farming regions in Ethiopia (i.e., Oromia, Amhara, Afar, and Somali) were rigorously struck by this drought event. The severity of the drought disaster in Ethiopia reflects its multi-dimensional nature since it manifested in different forms as meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and/or socio-economic droughts
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