Multidimensional choice model transferability

Abstract

Transferability studies have focused on the component models of the conventional four-step urban travel forecasting model system. This study extends previous analyses by examining the transferability of models describing multidimensional travel and related choices. In particular, we examine the hypothesis that joint and sequential choice models are equally transferable against the alternative hypotheses that either of the model types is more transferable. Measures of goodness of fit and transfer effectiveness are formulated for sequential choice models to provide a consistent comparison between the joint and sequential models. An empirical analysis is undertaken in the context of joint (multinomial logit) and sequential (nested logit) models of automobile ownership and mode choice to work. This study finds little difference between the transferability of these joint and sequential models. However, this conclusion appears to be dependent on the similarity of the estimation results for the joint and sequential models in this case. These results suggest a need for additional testing in other empirical contexts to identify the relative transferability of joint versus sequential models when the estimation results are distinct.