Multidimensional assessment of agricultural drought vulnerability based on socioeconomic and biophysical indicators

Abstract

Agricultural drought threatens Türkiye's food security and economy, revealing a lack of multidimensional provincial vulnerability studies. Therefore, the primary objective of this study is to evaluate Türkiye's vulnerability to drought utilizing a multidimensional strategy incorporating biophysical and socio-economic indicators. In this context, an initial step involved the development of a conceptual framework for drought vulnerability, drawing upon the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recommended elements of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Subsequently, this conceptual framework was applied at the provincial level, encompassing parameters such as temperature, precipitation, soil characteristics, water resources, agricultural earnings, demographic traits, educational levels, innovation, insurance coverage, and road density.The Aridity Index was used as an indicator for drought exposure, representing the physical dimension of drought. Under the sensitivity component, a total of 14 variables were defined under the indicators of “soil”, “water and land resources”, “economy”, and “population”, while under the adaptive capacity component, a total of five variables were identified. The weights of these indicators and variables were determined based on expert opinions using the Analytic Hierarchy Process method. As a result, five different indices were obtained by combining the indicators: Exposure Index, Sensitivity Index, Adaptation Capacity Index, Potential Drought Impact Index, and Agricultural Drought Vulnerability Index. In addition, spatial distribution models of these indices were also generated. Research results showed that the climatic regions most exposed to drought are also the most vulnerable. The Central, Southeastern, and Eastern Anatolian regions constitute the regions where the most vulnerable provinces are concentrated spatially.